Destination Canada’s tourism outlook identifies significant opportunity gaps

Highlights:

As we move beyond pandemic recovery, from surviving to thriving, the Canadian tourism sector, including the industries, businesses, communities and people that comprise it, is at a crossroads.

There are clear choices ahead for the sector: staying the current course and risk a slip in global rankings and demand due to constraints upon the sector—or transforming tourism in Canada to truly realize its full potential.

The opportunity gap: The current growth trajectory for Canada is $140 billion in revenues by 2030, considerably up from the $105 billion we saw in 2019. However, when we adjust for inflation, there’s almost no real growth and we are missing out on an enormous opportunity. The tourism sector can generate $20 billion more per year by 2030 through transformation.

Canada’s potential growth trajectory should take us to $160 billion in revenues by 2030, but capacity constraints are limiting the tourism sector from achieving its full potential. The sector needs to embrace a transformational path to achieve this.

The difference between business as usual and a new approach to tourism is an opportunity gap of $20 billion in spending annually by 2030. But the difference between $160 billion and $140 billion is about more than revenue. It is not just top-line growth, its bottom-line growth and real profitability for tourism businesses. It is the difference between strong prosperity that supports well-paying jobs, allows re-investment in our tourism assets and ensures we have new capital flowing into our sector. It is the path forward—and how we can transform the sector to support the wealth and well-being of everyone who lives in Canada.

In Canada, tourism, post-recovery, is expected to grow faster than the general economy. However, Canada’s tourism growth rate falls short of the global average.

Tourism remains resilient amidst global challenges.

Strong recovery lifts tourism spending above the prior peak. Overall tourism spend from leisure and business travel is projected to exceed pre-COVID levels in 2023, reaching $109.5 billion (104 per cent of 2019 levels), earlier than previously forecasted and largely driven by inflation.

Domestic activity led revenue recovery, but international is ready to outpace growth trajectory.

Leisure has been the main driver of travel but business travel is picking up. Over the last two years, leisure was the main driver of travel, recovering to 2019 levels in 2022 with $72.4 billion in revenue.

Business travel visits will take longer to reach pre-pandemic levels. Overall, the number of guests on business trips to Canada from domestic and international origins will reach prepandemic levels in 2026.

The business events leads pipeline is improving but actual bookings won't recover until 2028. Canada's pipeline of leads for business events is expected to recover by 2024, but the resulting bookings will not gain traction until 2028.

Short-term economic headwinds will give way to growth. Higher interest rates have weighed on real disposable incomes, slowing the global economy and GDP growth, this is expected to ease by 2025.

The tourism sector is an economic powerhouse with the potential to generate $160 billion in revenue by 2030.

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